The renewal backlog has started to clear, and the pattern is useful: Netflix is still willing to order more seasons, but a strong debut alone doesn’t settle the question. Viewership trends, production costs and the time a show spends waiting for news all matter.
The Diplomat and Leanne – Picture Credits: Netflix
Since our mid-2026 roundup of shows awaiting decisions, Netflix has resolved several cases. Crew Girl, Legends, Nemesis, A Different World, Big Mistakes, Bet and Finding Her Edge are returning. The Four Seasons has a third season, even after a sizable audience drop in season 2. And just last week, Netflix Korea ordered two more seasons of Trauma Code. Other shows weren’t as fortunate: The Boroughs, Bandi and Strip Law were canceled, as recorded in our 2026 cancellation list.
Many scripted series are still waiting. This guide covers titles Wikipedia’s list of Netflix originals marks “Pending,” excluding shows that haven’t premiered, documentaries and reality series. A few listings may be out of date. Our calls draw on weekly global Top 10 results, comparisons with earlier seasons, performance in home markets over the first 30 days, production costs and the familiar Hollywood signal: prolonged silence rarely helps a show’s prospects.
These are predictions, not inside information. Netflix’s own viewership figures and previous reporting provide the basis, but they can’t answer every question. Tuesday’s Top 10 report, covering October 19–25, should add first-week figures for Lupin, Nobody Wants This, Cyberpunk: Edgerunners 2 and week two of Hollywood Arts. Those numbers could change the outlook for several shows below.
The Heavy Hitters
The Diplomat (Season 5)
Our prediction: Likely renewal.
Season 4 arrived October 15 and started at No. 5 on the English-language TV chart, with 4.8 million views, or 33.5 million hours, across 58 countries. The opening-week sequence—8.5 million for season 1, 5.6 million for season 2, then 4.8 million for each of seasons 3 and 4—has stopped falling. That stability is a more persuasive renewal case than a single headline number. Season 4’s chart debut also arrives alongside strong reviews, a cliffhanger, a cast keen to continue and Allison Janney’s Emmy win. Netflix executives have shown the series support, including former CEO Reed Hastings.
There’s a catch. Netflix renewed earlier seasons well before they premiered; this time it hasn’t. Season 4 also involved an expensive international shoot and large crowd scenes, giving the company reason to watch weeks two and three before committing. Still, a fifth season looks more likely than not. Our season 5 tracker has more.
Nobody Wants This (Season 4)
Our prediction: Likely renewal, though the decline is becoming hard to dismiss.
Nobody Wants This. Kristen Bell as Joanne in episode 304 of Nobody Wants This. Cr. Katrina Marchinowski/Netflix © 2026
The first four days of season 3, which premiered October 22, produced 6.2 million views. That was good for No. 2 on the weekly chart—behind Below—and a Top 10 position in 56 countries, including No. 1 in 11. The new season also sent viewing of the first two seasons up by as much as three times. Across its run, the series has now passed 110 million views. Those opening results make a season 4 case, but they don’t erase the downward trend.
Season openings have dropped from 10.3 million views to 8.6 million and now 6.2 million. The latest fall is 28%, compared with a 16.5% slide between seasons 1 and 2; season 3 is roughly 40% below the first season’s debut. Season 2 also left the Top 10 sooner, ending at 25.4 million views after four weeks, while season 1 reached 48.7 million over six. Week two will say a lot about whether season 3 can hold its audience.
Even with that erosion, 6.2 million views in four days is a solid start for a half-hour comedy. Netflix renewed season 3 on November 4, 2025, just 12 days after season 2 premiered. Creator Erin Foster says there’s “more story to tell,” though she’s also said she’d rather end with viewers wanting more than stretch the series too far. A season 4 order seems likely, perhaps as the final season. If production starts in early 2027, an October 2027 release would fit the show’s usual schedule.
Lupin (Part 5)
Our prediction: Likely renewal; close to all but confirmed.
Part 4 premiered October 23, the first season without creator George Kay. FlixPatrol has already recorded it in the Top 10 in 62 countries and at No. 1 in 40, including France. Writer Florent Meyer said at a Netflix book festival panel that the team is “working on a fifth season.” The finale also leaves a clear path forward, as our ending breakdown explains. We’ll avoid spoilers, but the story doesn’t feel designed as a final chapter. Part 3 earned 25.7 million views in its first two weeks, so Tuesday’s figures matter. Still, Netflix France has consistently backed this franchise.
Man on Fire (Season 2)
Our prediction: 50/50, with the outlook worsening.
MAN ON FIRE. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as John Creasy in Episode 101 of Man on Fire. Cr. Juan Rosas/Netflix © 2024
In May, we leaned toward a renewal. The numbers initially backed that call: 11.0 million views in week one, No. 1 on the English-language TV chart and 61 million hours watched, followed by 12.6 million views and another No. 1 finish in week two. Hours rose 15%. Its 23.6 million views over two weeks ranked fourth among 13 comparable action dramas, behind The Watcher, The Night Agent and Black Doves, but ahead of 1899, The Recruit and season 1 of The Diplomat.
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II has left the door open to returning, and the finale points toward Mexico City. So why is there still no renewal, six months later? A shoot spanning several countries likely came with a high price tag, and Netflix has spent much of the year hesitating over expensive action dramas. The Boroughs is a recent example. The silence around Man on Fire is starting to look like a warning.
XO, Kitty (Season 4)
Our prediction: Likely renewal, possibly as a final season. The delay is puzzling.
Season 3 followed the show’s usual pattern: viewership fell, but gradually. Its three-week totals were 32.6 million views for season 1, 27.1 million for season 2 and 23.7 million for season 3. That puts the latest season about 12% below its predecessor and 27% below the first. We said that decline wasn’t a concern, and it still isn’t the main issue. The bigger question is why Netflix has gone six months without an announcement, after renewing the show quickly twice before.
Summer reporting raised concerns that the creative team was struggling to assemble another season. That report adds uncertainty. For every series on this list, time without news makes a renewal harder to assume.
Beef (Season 3)
Our prediction: A long hiatus. A return in 2028 or 2029 is the earliest plausible case, if it returns at all.
Season 2, starring Carey Mulligan, Oscar Isaac, Cailee Spaeny and Charles Melton, drew strong reviews and is an Emmy frontrunner in Limited Series. The audience numbers were much weaker: 2.4 million views in its debut week, 58% below season 1’s 5.8 million, and 6.5 million after two weeks compared with 17.8 million for the first season at the same point. It was the weakest of nine comparable Thursday premieres.
Anthology seasons have to rebuild their audience each time, and season 2 never found the same word of mouth. Netflix’s Emmy performance was its weakest in a decade, though the available information doesn’t establish that Beef was a key cause. Creator Lee Sung Jin remains under an overall deal, so the property isn’t necessarily finished. But Netflix may be done treating it as a regular series; he could put that work toward other projects instead.
The Hawk (Season 2)
Our prediction: Leaning toward cancellation.
Picture Credit: Netflix
Will Ferrell’s sports comedy started with 4.8 million views, No. 3 on the English-language TV chart, then climbed to 6.2 million in week two as viewing hours grew 30%. Its two-week total was 11.0 million. That puts it around the middle of 17 recent comedy debuts: behind FUBAR and The Gentlemen, but ahead of Tires, Leanne and Survival of the Thickest, all of which earned second seasons.
The counterweight is a 29% critics’ score, a 65% audience score and a viewership base concentrated in Western, English-speaking markets. Production costs could be the bigger obstacle: reports put the budget at $5 million to $7 million per episode. Matt Belloni discussed the show as a recent failure on The Town podcast, but Writers Guild records suggest work on season 2 may be underway. That’s a promising clue, not a renewal announcement, and the odds tend to fall as the wait grows.
Leanne (Season 3)
Our prediction: 50/50.
Season 2 premiered August 27 with 10 episodes, fewer than season 1. The smaller order should have made a viewership target easier to reach, but the season missed the global weekly Top 10 altogether; the cutoff that week was 2.2 million views. Season 1 opened at 2.7 million and 2.8 million.
There are reasons not to write it off. The show ranked No. 3 in the United States for four days, made the Canadian Top 5 and earned two Emmy nominations. Multi-camera sitcoms cost less to produce, Chuck Lorre has a long track record, and Netflix has renewed comedies with weaker global performance, including A Man on the Inside. But Tim Daly has moved to NBC’s Newlyweds, and Netflix hasn’t acted in two months. If Leanne returns, a final season to close out the story seems plausible.
Haunted Hotel (Season 3)
Our prediction: 50/50, with a strong preference for renewal.
Haunted Hotel: Season 2. (L-R) Jimmi Simpson as Abaddon and Natalie Palamides as Esther in Haunted Hotel: Season 2. Cr. NETFLIX © 2026
The first season was renewed a week after its September 2025 premiere, earned Netflix’s “highly rewatched” label and appeared in daily Top 10 lists across 59 countries. Season 2, released October 9, had a quieter start: it missed the weekly chart in week one, then reached No. 9 in week two with 2.7 million views and 9.1 million hours. That’s roughly where season 1 stood at the same point.
Creator Matt Roller says the season 3 scripts are finished, and the team could begin production quickly. The prep already done could support a 2027 return, a meaningful advantage for animation, where long production schedules can complicate renewals. Roller’s comments point to a show that’s ready to continue. Adult animation renewals have become uncommon outside advance orders, but the series has both a head start and a dedicated online audience.
Stranger Things: Tales from ’85 (Season 3)
Our prediction: Leaning toward cancellation.
The original two-season order is complete, so a third season needs a new commission. The question is whether the results justify one. Season 1 earned 2.8 million views in week one and 2.1 million in week two, for 23.9 million hours and 4.9 million views overall. That’s a respectable showing for animation, but a modest one for a series carrying the Stranger Things name.
Season 2 performed worse. It made the overall TV Top 10 in only a handful of countries, usually near the bottom, and ranked No. 8 on the US Kids chart. The showrunner has said openly that viewing figures will determine its future and has asked fans to spread the word. Netflix could keep the series alive as a brand extension while Stranger Things winds down, but the audience data leaves a steep climb.
Cyberpunk: Edgerunners (Season 3)
Our prediction: A direct third season seems unlikely. Another standalone story years from now remains possible.
Edgerunners 2 arrived October 20, four years after the original. Its first viewership figures are due Tuesday. Showrunner Bartosz Sztybor hasn’t ruled out another story—there are “a lot of stories to tell in Night City”—but he also said that without “a perfect story and a perfect director, artist, or a studio,” the series “maybe will be just two Edgerunners.” His comments leave the door open without promising anything. CD Projekt Red’s cautious handling of the franchise is the larger constraint. Think of it as on ice, like Love, Death & Robots, rather than definitively canceled.
Bloodhounds (Season 3)
Our prediction: Likely renewal, on Netflix Korea’s schedule—possibly 2028.
Picture Credit: Netflix
Season 2 premiered in early April, almost three years after season 1. It began with 5.0 million views and a No. 2 ranking on the non-English chart, rose to 7.4 million and No. 1 in week two, then held 3.7 million in week three. After five weeks, it had 19.8 million views, close to season 1’s 20.3 million despite the long gap. The retention is a strong argument for more. Woo Do-hwan has also said publicly that he’s willing to return. Six months without news is less concerning here: Netflix Korea often takes its time announcing renewals.
Elite Force (Season 2, France)
Our prediction: Likely renewal.
Elite Force had France’s biggest scripted debut of the year, with 10.1 million views and 49.6 million hours in its first week. It led the non-English chart, well ahead of Under a Dark Sun at 5.8 million and Blood Coast at 5.6 million. Those numbers back up our July expectation of a second season. Netflix France has canceled shows quickly this year, including Bandi, and passed up a chance to announce a renewal at its French Upfronts. Even so, the viewership makes a season 2 order a reasonable bet.
Not a Stranger (Season 2, Turkey)
Our prediction: Likely renewal.
Picture Credit: Netflix
The strongest renewal case is still the Turkish thriller
Not a Stranger has the clearest momentum in this group. The Turkish thriller drew 4.6M, 9.7M, 5.1M, 3.2M and 2.1M views over five weeks, topping Netflix’s non-English chart in weeks two and three. Its run also outpaced the first-season trajectory of Thank You, Next. We called it “a very, very strong performer” after its first week, and Turkish shows that stay on the chart this long have often been renewed. I’d expect Netflix to bring this one back.
Bad Thoughts (Season 3)
Our prediction: 50/50. Leaning cancellation.
Tom Segura’s sketch series has never been a ratings draw: season one opened at 3.8M on a Tuesday. Its low cost gave us reason to predict a renewal in mid-2026, but the release history now looks less encouraging. Netflix renewed season one within weeks. Season two arrived in late May, and five months later there’s still no word. That gap is the first clear sign the pattern may have changed.
Hollywood Arts (Season 2)
Our prediction: 50/50. Week two decides it.
The Victorious spin-off debuted on October 15 with fewer than 2.5M views and didn’t make the English TV Top 10. That’s a weak opening, though 12 episodes leave viewers a lot to get through in just four days. Bet offers a useful comparison: it started at 2.4M, climbed in week two and earned a renewal, helped by its low production cost. Netflix gave Crew Girl and Finding Her Edge near-immediate pickups; Hollywood Arts looks more likely to face a wait. Tuesday’s viewing number should tell us more.
My Brilliant Career (Season 2)
Our prediction: Leaning cancellation, mostly by design.
This Australian period drama began quietly, with 3.1M views and a number-four chart position. Week two brought a 52% jump to 4.7M views and number two, alongside strong reviews and good word of mouth. That made for 7.8M over two weeks, seventh among ten recent period dramas—well behind Queen Charlotte and 1899. The series adapts one novel and received little marketing outside Australia. Those are good figures for an Australian show, but it’s unclear whether the story has enough left to support another season. The week-two surge is detailed in our report on its rise and the debut of Facing El Chapo.
Limited series we don’t expect to continue
- Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: It opened with 4.5M views at number two, rose to 6.9M, then fell to 3.1M, for 14.5M across three weeks. We described its opening week as grim. We’ve since heard its completion rate was good, but reported in mid-2026 that Netflix is treating it as a limited series. A second season isn’t expected.
- Agatha Christie’s Seven Dials: Three episodes adapting one novel make this a limited series. Netflix may adapt more Christie; this story appears to be complete.
- Unchosen: Its 10.4M first-week views and number-one rankings in nearly 70 countries made it a major hit. It was also the first British scripted series to top the English chart since Hard Cell. The show was developed and promoted as self-contained. Netflix could still reopen it, as it did with Below, but that would be a surprise.
- Radioactive Emergency, Moria and Straight to Hell: Each is a true-story drama with a natural endpoint. We expect each to stand alone.
Adult animation and anime
For Netflix adult animation, the old rule still looks sound: if a series doesn’t reach the weekly global charts, assume it’s finished.
- Mating Season, Alley Cats and Dang! all missed those charts, and Netflix hasn’t announced a return for any of them. Mating Season remains a 50/50 possibility for season two.
- Love Through a Prism and Dandelion had no meaningful chart presence. Neither is expected back.
- Baki-Dou: The Invincible Samurai has a better case: the Baki franchise has been one of Netflix’s most dependable anime renewal bets for years. A renewal looks likely eventually.
Non-English originals
- French: Elite Force is covered above. Flunked rose from 2.0M to 4.0M views and reached number one in France, but six months of silence leaves it at 50/50. Cash Queens drew 4.0M over two weeks and is leaning toward cancellation. Furies is at season three.
- German: Crooks (season three), Unfamiliar and Crap Happens are all awaiting news. Netflix Germany is usually quick with decisions, so the silence on all three stands out.
- Hindi and other Indian: Delhi Crime (season four) had a modest 2.3M opening for season three after a long wait. But it’s Netflix India’s Emmy winner, and our renewed-shows tracker has begun listing a fourth season. We haven’t found a formal Netflix announcement, so “likely, eventually” is the safest call. Operation Safed Sagar reached 4.8M in week two, a strong result for India; we put it at 50/50, leaning renewal. Shaque: Trust No One recorded 2.7M, 4.2M and 1.7M views, leaving it at 50/50. Other titles to watch are Maamla Legal Hai (season three), Taskaree, Hello Bachhon, Glory, Chumbak, Kohrra (season three), Super Subbu and #Love.
- Italian: Minerva Academy moved from 2.4M to 2.7M views, ranking fourth among five recent Italian shows. That may be enough for renewal; fingers crossed. The other titles are Motorvalley, My Family (season three) and Real Men (season three).
- Japanese: Plastic Beauty rose from 2.3M to 5.1M views, the third-best result behind Yu Yu Hakusho and Last Samurai Standing. We’re leaning toward renewal. Sins of Kujo, Viral Hit, S&X and Did Someone Happen to Mention Me? (released last week) are also awaiting word. Human Vapor had 1.6M views by week three, making a return unlikely.
- Korean: Bloodhounds is covered above. The Price of Confession opened at 2.2M and reached 7.9M over two weeks, but nearly a year of silence makes a return unlikely.
- Mandarin: Had I Not Seen the Sun, Million-Follower Detective, Agent from Above and The Fixers all missed the charts. None is expected back.
- Norwegian: Jo Nesbø’s Detective Hole drew 4.9M and then 6.9M views, for 11.8M total. That puts it sixth among nine Nordic comparisons. After seven months without news on an expensive adaptation of a known property, its chances are 50/50 at best. Home for Christmas is at season four.
- Polish: The Mothers of Penguins is at season three.
- Portuguese: Habeas Corpus climbed from 1.6M to 2.4M views and sits at 50/50. Wrath had only 1.3M by week three, so a renewal looks unlikely. Brazil 70: The Third Star is a one-off.
- Spanish-language: My Daughter’s Father opened at 5.2M and was still charting in week five; its prospects are 50/50. Inside the Circle started at 2.1M, last among six Mexican comparisons, and is leaning toward cancellation. Santita drew 1.9M and is also leaning toward cancellation. Stolen Heartbeats has 50 episodes, so its fate depends on daily chart performance. Other titles in the group are Lovesick, Final Project, Salcedo, Leather, and Boogaloo, Oasis, Carizzma, Between Father and Son, Salvador, Love from 9 to 5, Time Flies, City of Shadows, How to Win the Lottery, Just Alice, The Manny (season four), Baby Bandito (season three), The Accident (season three) and Fading Grandeur (released Friday).
- Swedish: George Kay’s post-Lupin thriller Blood Sacrifice opened at 7.0M views and number one on the non-English chart. It ranks third among six Nordic comparisons, putting it on the renewal side of the line.
- Turkish: Not a Stranger is covered above. Money Trap: The Karun Treasure is too new to assess. The list also includes To Love, To Lose, Thank You, Next (season four), Another Self (season four) and Graveyard (season four).
- Dutch: The Perfect Lie hit 7.0M views and number one on the non-English chart in week two, then fell to 2.5M and 1.4M. A second season could be in play, so we’re leaning toward renewal.
- Thai: The Evil Lawyer and Delusion are on the list. Delusion notably missed the charts and isn’t expected back.
- South African: Umthetho rose from 1.7M to 3.5M views, with viewing hours up 108%; we’re leaning toward renewal. The Polygamist has 22 episodes and was still charting in week seven, also pointing toward renewal. Blood Legacy is at season three, Fatal Seduction at season four and How to Ruin Love at season three.
- Other: The Chestnut Man (season three), Alkhallat+: The Series, Made with Love (2.4M followed by 1.8M views) and Night Shift for Cuties.
Which of these calls do you think we’ve got wrong? Let us know in the comments.
